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Virgin Galactic Launch·closes in 3mo

When will Virgin Galactic launch next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip ?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
0
6,902 lifetime
Open interest
5,987
+0 over 24h
Spread
6¢
5 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%

A YES contract costs 46¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask
40¢ / 46¢
NO bid / ask
54¢ / 60¢
Recent buying8% YES · 92% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 7:05 AMSep 21, 2:44 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10199¢
  • ask2893¢
  • ask32591¢
  • ask4289¢
  • ask1788¢
  • ask1546¢
spread6¢mid 43¢
  • bid540¢
  • bid716¢
  • bid1013¢
  • bid55012¢
  • bid1.615¢
  • bid1061¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Virgin Galactic launches next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip After issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 1 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSPCELAUNCH-COMM-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 8% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago33¢500bought no
2d ago33¢500bought no
2d ago39¢500bought no
3d ago23¢133bought no
3d ago33¢5bought no
3d ago32¢500bought no
5d ago33¢45bought no
5d ago34¢5bought no
21d ago39¢500bought no
21d ago40¢5bought no
26d ago45¢100bought yes
26d ago44¢4.18bought yes
26d ago41¢15bought yes
26d ago46¢97bought yes
26d ago42¢133bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.