51st state ·closes in 28mo

Will Any part of Canada be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Canada

24h volume: 0; 227.2k lifetime
Open interest: 94.4k; +0 over 24h
Spread: 1¢; 339 × 257 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask

1¢ / 2¢

NO bid / ask

98¢ / 99¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask373¢
ask2353¢
ask4,0003¢
ask3733¢
ask2,0262¢
ask12¢
ask1,8672¢
ask2572¢

spread1¢mid 2¢

bid3391¢
bid1,5981¢
bid1,0001¢
bid1551¢
bid1,5001¢
bid5,5191¢
bid3,8001¢
bid4,0360¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 51st state is any part of Canada before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

Library of Congress

opened: Jan 9, 2025 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXSTATE51-29-CA

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.