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51st state ·closes in 28mo

Will Any part of Canada be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Canada

24h volume
0
227.2k lifetime
Open interest
94.4k
+4,616 over 90d
Spread
1¢
339 × 257 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 25Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask373¢
  • ask2353¢
  • ask4,0003¢
  • ask3733¢
  • ask2,0262¢
  • ask12¢
  • ask1,8672¢
  • ask2572¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid3391¢
  • bid1,5981¢
  • bid1,0001¢
  • bid1551¢
  • bid1,5001¢
  • bid5,5191¢
  • bid3,8001¢
  • bid4,0360¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 51st state is any part of Canada before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 9, 2025 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSTATE51-29-CA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 13¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago2¢145bought yes
1d ago2¢98bought yes
1d ago2¢1,500bought yes
1d ago2¢9,067bought yes
1d ago2¢1,000bought yes
1d ago1¢18bought yes
1d ago2¢155bought yes
1d ago1¢1,500bought yes
1d ago1¢18bought yes
1d ago2¢1,339bought yes
1d ago2¢25bought yes
2d ago1¢53bought no
2d ago1¢176bought no
2d ago1¢1bought no
2d ago1¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.