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51st state ·closes in 28mo

Will Any part of Greenland be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Greenland

24h volume
251
433.5k lifetime
Open interest
144.5k
−2,452 over 30d
Spread
0¢
931 × 62 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−0

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying74% YES · 26% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7153¢
  • ask6143¢
  • ask8302¢
  • ask8752¢
  • ask7982¢
  • ask1612¢
  • ask6802¢
  • ask622¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid9311¢
  • bid1,2281¢
  • bid2,7531¢
  • bid5,5001¢
  • bid12.1k1¢
  • bid2,5011¢
  • bid2,8571¢
  • bid3,3331¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 51st state is any part of Greenland before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 9, 2025 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSTATE51-29-GL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 13¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 74% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago2¢10bought no
5h ago1¢120bought no
5h ago2¢3.85bought no
11h ago2¢10bought yes
12h ago2¢44bought no
12h ago2¢14bought no
15h ago2¢8.01bought yes
15h ago2¢31bought yes
15h ago2¢10bought yes
2d ago2¢10bought no
2d ago2¢1bought yes
2d ago2¢574bought no
2d ago2¢985bought yes
2d ago2¢5bought yes
3d ago2¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.