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51st state ·closes in 28mo

Will Guam be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Guam

24h volume
0
83.5k lifetime
Open interest
57.2k
+452 over 30d
Spread
1¢
716 × 2,077 at the touch
24h range
–
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,0004¢
  • ask2,2833¢
  • ask2,0932¢
  • ask82¢
  • ask5302¢
  • ask3,0782¢
  • ask4,3471¢
  • ask2,0771¢
spread1¢mid 1¢
  • bid7160¢
  • bid1570¢
  • bid5,0630¢
  • bid236.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 51st state is Guam before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 3 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSTATE51-29-GU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 13¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago1¢333bought yes
6d ago1¢1,010bought yes
12d ago1¢33bought yes
13d ago1¢36bought no
13d ago1¢33bought no
13d ago1¢33bought yes
15d ago1¢108bought yes
15d ago1¢155bought no
16d ago1¢49bought yes
16d ago1¢49bought yes
18d ago1¢100bought yes
22d ago1¢187bought yes
26d ago1¢5bought no
26d ago1¢5bought yes
27d ago1¢8bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.