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Will Taiwan be issued a Level 4 travel warning?·closes in 3mo

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
204.5k lifetime
Open interest
114.8k
+4,761 over 30d
Spread
2¢
5,000 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 97¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volAug 22Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10025¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask30021¢
  • ask9420¢
  • ask19219¢
  • ask17114¢
  • ask5007¢
  • ask1,0005¢
spread2¢mid 4¢
  • bid5,0003¢
  • bid7143¢
  • bid1493¢
  • bid10.0k2¢
  • bid6422¢
  • bid4,2002¢
  • bid7092¢
  • bid2,2161¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 7 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago3¢5.36bought no
4d ago5¢5.07bought yes
5d ago5¢0.01bought no
5d ago5¢141bought no
5d ago5¢1bought yes
6d ago4¢940bought no
10d ago4¢5.16bought no
11d ago4¢555bought no
15d ago7¢100bought yes
15d ago7¢26bought yes
15d ago6¢10bought yes
18d ago6¢10bought no
18d ago6¢19bought no
18d ago6¢1bought no
18d ago6¢76bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.