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Will Taiwan be issued a Level 4 travel warning?·closes in 40mo

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2030

24h volume
89
22.1k lifetime
Open interest
8,452
Spread
6¢
5 × 4.33 at the touch
24h range
–
45 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−33

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 39¢
NO bid / ask
61¢ / 67¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,97684¢
  • ask59183¢
  • ask1.0675¢
  • ask36669¢
  • ask1556¢
  • ask10042¢
  • ask50040¢
  • ask4.3339¢
spread6¢mid 36¢
  • bid533¢
  • bid50032¢
  • bid6084¢
  • bid1,4804¢
  • bid501¢
  • bid250¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2030 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 7 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 45 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago25¢1.67bought no
8h ago3¢5bought no
8h ago25¢1bought no
8h ago3¢78bought no
23h ago38¢3.33bought no
2d ago38¢19bought no
2d ago42¢100bought no
2d ago42¢5bought no
2d ago36¢46bought no
3d ago44¢61bought yes
3d ago44¢5bought yes
7d ago39¢32bought yes
7d ago38¢6bought no
13d ago38¢25bought no
13d ago40¢6.49bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.