galdor.xyz
Admin
Treasury cryptocurrency purchases·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Bitcoin

24h volume
0
657 lifetime
Open interest
478
+453 over 30d
Spread
8¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 86¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask96287¢
  • ask5386¢
  • ask52965¢
  • ask54264¢
  • ask20562¢
  • ask14861¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask20022¢
spread8¢mid 18¢
  • bid514¢
  • bid20013¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

A purchase means the named cryptocurrency acquired for value and held by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, including units bought with the proceeds of selling other digital assets already held. The announcement must state that the purchase has been made. Each strike settles on its own token, and more than one strike can resolve YES. The following do NOT count: An intended, planned or authorized purchase, including one authorized by legislation or by executive order Units confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings, or otherwise received rather than bought Exchange-traded products, futures or other derivative exposure

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 28, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-BITCOIN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago22¢24bought yes
17d ago22¢20bought no
17d ago23¢5bought no
20d ago28¢6.63bought yes
20d ago26¢108bought yes
20d ago26¢1bought yes
20d ago21¢1bought no
21d ago24¢38bought yes
21d ago20¢200bought yes
23d ago20¢36bought yes
24d ago20¢45bought yes
30d ago18¢108bought yes
30d ago18¢14bought yes
30d ago18¢25bought yes
1mo ago18¢25bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.