Treasury cryptocurrency purchases·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of XRP for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means XRP

24h volume
0
1,053 lifetime
Open interest
1,053
+1,053 over 90d
Spread
10 × 205 at the touch
24h range
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
/ 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 94¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 28Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask98086¢
  • ask21083¢
  • ask53464¢
  • ask5058¢
  • ask48757¢
  • ask450¢
  • ask15447¢
  • ask20514¢
spreadmid 10¢
  • bid10
  • bid200
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces its completed purchase of XRP for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

A purchase means the named cryptocurrency acquired for value and held by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, including units bought with the proceeds of selling other digital assets already held. The announcement must state that the purchase has been made. Each strike settles on its own token, and more than one strike can resolve YES. The following do NOT count: An intended, planned or authorized purchase, including one authorized by legislation or by executive order Units confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings, or otherwise received rather than bought Exchange-traded products, futures or other derivative exposure

opened
Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 28, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-XRP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago20¢24bought yes
6d ago18¢105bought yes
7d ago16¢53bought yes
17d ago14¢62bought yes
18d ago25¢93bought yes
19d ago22¢71bought yes
20d ago22¢12bought yes
21d ago19¢75bought yes
22d ago15¢189bought yes
22d ago12¢143bought yes
23d ago44¢17bought yes
23d ago200bought yes
23d ago1bought yes
24d ago10¢8.25bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.