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How low will Trump's approval get this year?·closes in 2mo

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

YES means Below 34%

24h volume
1,612
50.9k lifetime
Open interest
18.0k
Spread
1¢
28 × 2,230 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 22¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%+6

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 79¢
24h low 15¢24h high 22¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6030¢
  • ask5229¢
  • ask5028¢
  • ask5427¢
  • ask25526¢
  • ask16325¢
  • ask1,00023¢
  • ask2,23022¢
spread1¢mid 21¢
  • bid2821¢
  • bid23620¢
  • bid3319¢
  • bid10118¢
  • bid1,17017¢
  • bid2479¢
  • bid149¢
  • bid189¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 34%, then the market resolves to Yes.

In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 11, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC
cap
34
ticker
KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-34
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago22¢0.04bought yes
3h ago21¢3.47bought no
3h ago20¢5.05bought no
3h ago21¢15bought no
3h ago21¢14bought no
4h ago22¢2.15bought yes
5h ago22¢65bought yes
6h ago22¢108bought yes
8h ago22¢98bought yes
8h ago22¢2.31bought yes
9h ago22¢22bought yes
10h ago22¢43bought yes
10h ago22¢4.31bought yes
11h ago22¢22bought yes
11h ago22¢22bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.