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How low will Trump's approval get this year?·closes in 2mo

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

YES means Below 34%

24h volume
1,612
50.9k lifetime
Open interest
18.0k
−833 over 7d
Spread
1¢
28 × 2,230 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 22¢
Chance of YES
22%+6

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 79¢
24h low 15¢24h high 22¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢30¢volOct 29Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6030¢
  • ask5229¢
  • ask5028¢
  • ask5427¢
  • ask25526¢
  • ask16325¢
  • ask1,00023¢
  • ask2,23022¢
spread1¢mid 21¢
  • bid2821¢
  • bid23620¢
  • bid3319¢
  • bid10118¢
  • bid1,17017¢
  • bid2479¢
  • bid149¢
  • bid189¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 34%, then the market resolves to Yes.

In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 11, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC
cap
34
ticker
KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-34
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.