Who will Trump endorse for president?·closes in 18mo

Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028?

YES means J.D. Vance

24h volume
115
11.9k lifetime
Open interest
6,605
−41 over 24h
Spread
80 × 7.86 at the touch
24h range
41¢ – 48¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%5

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 58¢

YES bid / ask
42¢ / 47¢
NO bid / ask
53¢ / 58¢
24h low 41¢24h high 48¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

35¢40¢45¢50¢volSep 20, 12:56 PMSep 21, 4:34 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump publicly endorses J.D. Vance in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

An "endorsement" requires: A clear, affirmative statement of support for candidate's election The statement must be public (not private communications) The endorsement must specifically reference the 2028 presidential election or be clearly in context of the 2028 presidential election The endorsement must come directly from Donald Trump or through official channels The following scenarios would resolve to YES: Donald Trump states "I endorse candidate for [office]" Donald Trump states "I support candidate" with clear reference to the 2028 presidential election Donald Trump states "I'm voting for candidate" publicly Donald Trump states "candidate has my full support" for the 2028 presidential election Donald Trump appears at campaign events specifically to endorse Donald Trump releases official endorsement through their organization Donald Trump allows their name/image to be used in candidate's campaign materials Statements of obvious sarcasm (or which are immediately followed by clarifications that Donald Trump is joking) are NOT encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The Contract shall resolve immediately upon confirmation of the first qualifying endorsement in the specified race. If multiple candidates are listed for a listed race and exactly one is endorsed, that candidate's strike resolves "Yes" at $1.00 and all other named-candidate strikes resolve "No." If multiple are endorsed, each endorsed candidate's strike resolves "Yes" at a value of ($1.00 / N) rounded down to the nearest $0.01. If no endorsement occurs before expiration, the "No one" strike resolves "Yes" at $1.00 and all named-candidate strikes resolve "No."

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 27 · 5:30 PM UTC
closes
Mar 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPENDORSE28-28MAR01-JVAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago42¢7.86bought no
2h ago48¢4.02bought yes
3h ago47¢1.67bought yes
3h ago48¢6.19bought yes
4h ago47¢4.1bought yes
6h ago47¢0.24bought yes
7h ago47¢4.1bought yes
8h ago41¢57bought no
8h ago42¢10bought no
9h ago47¢3.76bought yes
9h ago48¢6.35bought yes
14h ago47¢6.15bought yes
17h ago41¢2.01bought no
1d ago47¢1.02bought yes
1d ago47¢0.51bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.