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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Derek Chauvin

24h volume
0
6,416 lifetime
Open interest
3,021
−2.87 over 7d
Spread
11¢
6 × 11 at the touch
24h range
–
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 82¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2766¢
  • ask22165¢
  • ask1.464¢
  • ask260¢
  • ask355¢
  • ask350¢
  • ask145¢
  • ask1129¢
spread11¢mid 24¢
  • bid618¢
  • bid2.6717¢
  • bid17412¢
  • bid27211¢
  • bid354¢
  • bid543¢
  • bid1,0003¢
  • bid2,0002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Derek Chauvin has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DCHA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago27¢2.87bought no
7d ago27¢8.06bought no
11d ago27¢1.33bought no
11d ago27¢1.34bought no
14d ago28¢1.4bought no
17d ago17¢1.34bought no
17d ago12¢20bought no
19d ago27¢1bought no
1mo ago29¢200bought no
1mo ago34¢200bought yes
1mo ago34¢8.6bought yes
1mo ago35¢63bought yes
1mo ago34¢7.88bought yes
1mo ago34¢1.4bought yes
1mo ago27¢6.71bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.