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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Tim Leissner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Tim Leissner

24h volume
0
6,681 lifetime
Open interest
3,399
Spread
24¢
5 × 101 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
35%

A YES contract costs 34¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 34¢
NO bid / ask
66¢ / 90¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20099¢
  • ask1,57890¢
  • ask88278¢
  • ask55077¢
  • ask94776¢
  • ask25265¢
  • ask5764¢
  • ask10134¢
spread24¢mid 22¢
  • bid510¢
  • bid59¢
  • bid19¢
  • bid5508¢
  • bid462¢
  • bid8802¢
  • bid2001¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tim Leissner has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 23 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-TLEI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.