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Trump run for a third term·closes in 26mo

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?

YES means Before Election Day

24h volume
286
63.1k lifetime
Open interest
19.7k
Spread
12¢
15 × 335 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%−5

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 87¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3537¢
  • ask1536¢
  • ask5.433¢
  • ask1031¢
  • ask5028¢
  • ask21627¢
  • ask13526¢
  • ask33525¢
spread12¢mid 19¢
  • bid1513¢
  • bid1,00012¢
  • bid518¢
  • bid358¢
  • bid566¢
  • bid2,2226¢
  • bid4006¢
  • bid15¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Nov 7, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 25, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPRUN-28NOV07
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago15¢20bought no
13h ago16¢16bought no
15h ago18¢250bought no
1d ago20¢1.23bought no
2d ago25¢164bought yes
2d ago24¢25bought yes
2d ago23¢2.34bought yes
4d ago22¢5bought no
4d ago19¢0.66bought no
4d ago22¢5bought no
4d ago19¢2.34bought no
6d ago23¢2.34bought no
6d ago23¢198bought no
10d ago24¢3bought yes
10d ago25¢35bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.