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Tesla KPI·closes in 19mo

Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.5 million total deliveries in 2026?

YES means Above 1.5 million

24h volume
0
7,539 lifetime
Open interest
2,614
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
18 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
93%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
7%

costs 5¢

YES bid / ask
95¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 5¢
Recent buying26% YES · 74% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 20, 5:50 AMSep 21, 4:25 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
    spread–mid –
    • bid1895¢
    • bid20094¢
    • bid3191¢
    • bid1990¢
    • bid11788¢
    • bid4170¢
    • bid8768¢
    • bid17067¢
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1500000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 9 · 10:17 PM UTC
    closes
    Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
    floor
    1500000
    ticker
    KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1500000.0
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 21 trades, 26% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    3d ago93¢200bought no
    17d ago99¢0.98bought no
    20d ago99¢0.02bought no
    26d ago96¢117bought no
    26d ago97¢200bought yes
    26d ago94¢200bought no
    26d ago94¢16bought no
    26d ago94¢16bought no
    28d ago98¢0.02bought yes
    29d ago97¢28bought yes
    1mo ago98¢19bought yes
    1mo ago93¢0.13bought no
    1mo ago98¢5.09bought yes
    2mo ago95¢1bought no
    2mo ago95¢5.04bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.