Will the average temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?·closes in 16mo

Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
68 lifetime
Open interest
51
+0 over 24h
Spread
5 × 2.08 at the touch
24h range
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%

A YES contract costs 42¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 63¢

YES bid / ask
37¢ / 42¢
NO bid / ask
58¢ / 63¢
Recent buying22% YES · 78% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask1,00098¢
  • ask5197¢
  • ask1379¢
  • ask0.0275¢
  • ask30144¢
  • ask10143¢
  • ask2.0842¢
spreadmid 40¢
  • bid537¢
  • bid20036¢
  • bid5033¢
  • bid49
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any span of 4 consecutive calendar days after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 contains at least 2 days where the Station Average at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston (IAH) is below 20°F, then the market resolves to Yes.

A "Qualifying Day" is a calendar day after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 for which the applicable Station Test is met. The Station Test is whether the Station Average for the calendar day is below 20. A calendar day is after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 if the calendar date of that day, as used in the Source Agency's climatological records for the Reference Stations, falls after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028. The Qualifying Days within that span need not be consecutive, and Qualifying Days occurring outside that span do not affect the determination. The Station Average is calculated for any calendar day as the arithmetic mean of the Daily Minimum Temperatures for all Reference Stations for that calendar day, computed in degrees Fahrenheit and truncated to one decimal place. The Daily Minimum Temperature is the minimum temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit (unless otherwise specified), for a Reference Station for a calendar day, as documented by the Source Agency in its daily or monthly climatological records for that station, using the calendar-day boundaries applied by the Source Agency in those records. If the Source Agency corrects a documented value prior to Expiration, the corrected value shall be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTXURI-28DEC31-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 22% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago36¢2.08bought no
17d ago45¢9.97bought yes
17d ago44¢2.92bought yes
20d ago44¢2.08bought yes
1mo ago35¢1bought no
2mo ago36¢5bought no
2mo ago35¢45bought no
2mo ago40¢0.02bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.