Will the average temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?·closes in 28mo

Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2029?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
37 lifetime
Open interest
1
+0 over 24h
Spread
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
22 recent trades
Chance of YES
68%

A YES contract costs 68¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
32%

costs 38¢

YES bid / ask
62¢ / 68¢
NO bid / ask
32¢ / 38¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask5098¢
  • ask30069¢
  • ask10068¢
spreadmid 65¢
  • bid562¢
  • bid20061¢
  • bid45
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any span of 4 consecutive calendar days after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 contains at least 2 days where the Station Average at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston (IAH) is below 20°F, then the market resolves to Yes.

A "Qualifying Day" is a calendar day after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 for which the applicable Station Test is met. The Station Test is whether the Station Average for the calendar day is below 20. A calendar day is after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 if the calendar date of that day, as used in the Source Agency's climatological records for the Reference Stations, falls after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029. The Qualifying Days within that span need not be consecutive, and Qualifying Days occurring outside that span do not affect the determination. The Station Average is calculated for any calendar day as the arithmetic mean of the Daily Minimum Temperatures for all Reference Stations for that calendar day, computed in degrees Fahrenheit and truncated to one decimal place. The Daily Minimum Temperature is the minimum temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit (unless otherwise specified), for a Reference Station for a calendar day, as documented by the Source Agency in its daily or monthly climatological records for that station, using the calendar-day boundaries applied by the Source Agency in those records. If the Source Agency corrects a documented value prior to Expiration, the corrected value shall be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTXURI-28DEC31-29JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 22 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago68¢1bought yes
18d ago60¢0.43bought no
20d ago60¢14bought no
21d ago69¢1.7bought yes
21d ago70¢12bought yes
22d ago61¢0.13bought no
23d ago69¢0.43bought yes
1mo ago61¢1bought no
1mo ago63¢1bought no
1mo ago70¢0.13bought yes
2mo ago71¢0.91bought yes
2mo ago70¢0.09bought yes
2mo ago63¢0.09bought no
2mo ago70¢0.09bought yes
2mo ago60¢1.39bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.