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Unemployment spike·closes in 40mo

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

YES means Above 10%

24h volume
0
3,312 lifetime
Open interest
2,564
+288 over 90d
Spread
5¢
206 × 13 at the touch
24h range
–
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%

A YES contract costs 40¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 65¢

YES bid / ask
35¢ / 40¢
NO bid / ask
60¢ / 65¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢40¢50¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00096¢
  • ask5,00094¢
  • ask52893¢
  • ask4292¢
  • ask5051¢
  • ask9650¢
  • ask1,00041¢
  • ask1340¢
spread5¢mid 38¢
  • bid20635¢
  • bid1,00034¢
  • bid8412¢
  • bid51211¢
  • bid567¢
  • bid946¢
  • bid2,5095¢
  • bid1,0004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 10%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 4, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 4, 2030 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
10
ticker
KXU3MAX-30-10
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13d ago36¢0.03bought no
19d ago36¢12bought no
19d ago36¢2.01bought no
19d ago36¢0.88bought no
19d ago36¢0.11bought no
25d ago36¢0.01bought no
25d ago38¢0.01bought yes
25d ago36¢0.01bought no
25d ago38¢0.01bought yes
25d ago36¢0.01bought no
25d ago38¢0.01bought yes
25d ago36¢0.01bought no
25d ago38¢0.01bought yes
25d ago36¢0.01bought no
25d ago38¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.