Unemployment spike·closes in 40mo

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

YES means Above 17%

24h volume: 0; 1,506 lifetime
Open interest: 944; +489 over 90d
Spread: 6¢; 1,068 × 9.02 at the touch
24h range: 10¢ – 17¢

Chance of YES

10%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

90%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask

10¢ / 16¢

NO bid / ask

84¢ / 90¢

24h low 10¢24h high 17¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 17%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

Bureau of Labor Statistics

opened: Jun 4, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 4, 2030 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 4, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 17
ticker: KXU3MAX-30-17

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.