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UK elections·closes in 36mo

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

YES means Reform party

24h volume
4.91
74.8k lifetime
Open interest
11.7k
Spread
5¢
93 × 9.91 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%+1

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 70¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2.4560¢
  • ask559¢
  • ask45055¢
  • ask2,36854¢
  • ask18741¢
  • ask18237¢
  • ask1,11236¢
  • ask9.9135¢
spread5¢mid 32¢
  • bid9330¢
  • bid1,18528¢
  • bid5027¢
  • bid4,67924¢
  • bid7.519¢
  • bid766¢
  • bid3,6606¢
  • bid421¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 4, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKPARTY-29-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago31¢4.91bought no
1d ago30¢12bought no
10d ago29¢1.2bought no
10d ago29¢0.16bought no
10d ago29¢10bought no
14d ago35¢1.46bought yes
14d ago35¢4bought yes
16d ago30¢16bought no
17d ago29¢14bought no
19d ago36¢88bought yes
19d ago35¢5bought yes
22d ago31¢5bought no
22d ago33¢951bought yes
22d ago32¢171bought yes
24d ago32¢4bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.