UK elections·closes in 36mo

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

YES means Reform party

24h volume: 4.91; 74.8k lifetime
Open interest: 11.7k; −2,860 over 90d
Spread: 5¢; 93 × 9.91 at the touch
24h range: 27¢ – 38¢

Chance of YES

31%+1

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

69%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask

30¢ / 35¢

NO bid / ask

65¢ / 70¢

24h low 27¢24h high 38¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask2.4560¢
ask559¢
ask45055¢
ask2,36854¢
ask18741¢
ask18237¢
ask1,11236¢
ask9.9135¢

spread5¢mid 32¢

bid9330¢
bid1,18528¢
bid5027¢
bid4,67924¢
bid7.519¢
bid766¢
bid3,6606¢
bid421¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources

opened: Jan 4, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXUKPARTY-29-R

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.