UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes·closes in 16mo

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the removal or replacement of the Renewables Obligation Certificate buy-out fund redistribution mechanism before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means ROC recycle removal

24h volume
0
424 lifetime
Open interest
408
+0 over 24h
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
1 recent trades
Chance of YES
41%

A YES contract costs 49¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
59%

costs 58¢

YES bid / ask
42¢ / 49¢
NO bid / ask
51¢ / 58¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

40¢50¢volSep 20, 8:53 PMSep 20, 10:38 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask5099¢
  • ask2,50598¢
  • ask25697¢
  • ask20049¢
spreadmid 45¢
  • bid542¢
  • bid20041¢
  • bid251
  • bid2,054
  • bid50
  • bid11.0k
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces the removal or replacement of the Renewables Obligation Certificate buy-out fund redistribution mechanism before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments

opened
Mar 14 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKRENEWOB-28JAN01-ROCC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago41¢8bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.