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KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY·closes in 16mo

Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jan 2028

24h volume
480
93.0k lifetime
Open interest
30.5k
Spread
4¢
115 × 125 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%+5

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 87¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5134¢
  • ask10026¢
  • ask14023¢
  • ask10021¢
  • ask65020¢
  • ask11519¢
  • ask14218¢
  • ask12517¢
spread4¢mid 15¢
  • bid11513¢
  • bid62512¢
  • bid30011¢
  • bid61710¢
  • bid2949¢
  • bid1159¢
  • bid8008¢
  • bid1138¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 7 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9h ago17¢10bought yes
9h ago17¢1.18bought yes
9h ago17¢100bought yes
11h ago14¢1bought no
14h ago16¢90bought yes
14h ago16¢72bought yes
14h ago16¢69bought yes
14h ago15¢5bought yes
14h ago15¢22bought yes
14h ago16¢100bought yes
21h ago16¢10bought yes
21h ago16¢0.17bought yes
1d ago12¢1.12bought no
1d ago15¢5bought yes
1d ago15¢37bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.