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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 114mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2035 be above 6.0%?

YES means Above 6.0%

24h volume
0
408 lifetime
Open interest
85
Spread
20¢
0 × 16 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 100¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask17387¢
  • ask3568¢
  • ask13558¢
  • ask11657¢
  • ask623¢
  • ask322¢
  • ask6121¢
  • ask1620¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2035 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The initially reported value for December 2035 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2035, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Feb 1, 2036 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Feb 8, 2036 · 6:30 AM UTC
    floor
    6
    ticker
    KXUSCPIYEAR-36FEB01-T6.0
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 24 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1mo ago14¢15bought no
    1mo ago14¢25bought no
    1mo ago15¢15bought no
    1mo ago15¢10bought no
    1mo ago15¢10bought no
    1mo ago15¢35bought no
    1mo ago16¢58bought yes
    1mo ago15¢25bought yes
    1mo ago15¢25bought yes
    1mo ago15¢58bought yes
    1mo ago15¢10bought yes
    1mo ago15¢25bought yes
    1mo ago15¢1bought yes
    1mo ago21¢15bought no
    1mo ago21¢25bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.