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US takeover of AI·closes in 40mo

Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?

YES means Before 2030

24h volume
0
9,655 lifetime
Open interest
4,735
−20 over 30d
Spread
1¢
83 × 169 at the touch
24h range
34¢ – 40¢
Chance of YES
34%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 66¢

YES bid / ask
34¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 66¢
24h low 34¢24h high 40¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,32071¢
  • ask1,09668¢
  • ask7067¢
  • ask2.2866¢
  • ask3965¢
  • ask3864¢
  • ask50039¢
  • ask16935¢
spread1¢mid 35¢
  • bid8334¢
  • bid61131¢
  • bid25028¢
  • bid1626¢
  • bid4713¢
  • bid55012¢
  • bid1,11111¢
  • bid1,9807¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. government has taken operational control of any private AI company or project before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 20, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUSTAKEOVER-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.