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JD Vance announces presidential run by...?·closes in 9mo

Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jul 1, 2027

24h volume
0
1,276 lifetime
Open interest
781
+233 over 30d
Spread
54¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
75%

A YES contract costs 86¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
25%

costs 68¢

YES bid / ask
32¢ / 86¢
NO bid / ask
14¢ / 68¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask5099¢
  • ask64798¢
  • ask3898¢
  • ask23894¢
  • ask16694¢
  • ask1.7689¢
  • ask586¢
spread54¢mid 59¢
  • bid532¢
  • bid54¢
  • bid322¢
  • bid591¢
  • bid1571¢
  • bid1001¢
  • bid1001¢
  • bid10.1k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If JD Vance has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVANCERUN-28-27JUL01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago75¢9.25bought yes
11d ago74¢1.76bought yes
12d ago75¢3.16bought yes
12d ago85¢1.41bought yes
12d ago75¢1.41bought yes
12d ago99¢3.27bought yes
12d ago85¢14bought yes
12d ago69¢200bought yes
12d ago75¢14bought yes
20d ago69¢0.51bought yes
20d ago68¢0.7bought yes
20d ago69¢8.04bought yes
20d ago68¢5bought yes
27d ago63¢0.7bought no
27d ago63¢0.7bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.