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Victorian state election·closes in 14mo

Will Liberals and Nationals win the 2026 Victorian state election?

YES means Liberals and Nationals

24h volume
0
1,659 lifetime
Open interest
1,554
+1,508 over 90d
Spread
8¢
3 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
52%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
48%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 34¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢100¢volJul 21Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20099¢
  • ask79597¢
  • ask17594¢
  • ask20075¢
  • ask574¢
spread8¢mid 70¢
  • bid366¢
  • bid20065¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Liberals and Nationals wins the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For this market, “Liberals and Nationals” means the combined number of Legislative Assembly seats won by candidates endorsed by the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division) or the National Party of Australia – Victoria. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 4:21 PM UTC
closes
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVICTORIANSTATE-26NOV28-LIB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 79¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago52¢1bought no
1mo ago59¢1bought yes
1mo ago59¢50bought yes
1mo ago95¢2bought yes
2mo ago52¢1bought no
2mo ago52¢1bought no
2mo ago51¢5bought yes
2mo ago48¢500bought yes
2mo ago44¢500bought yes
2mo ago38¢4bought yes
2mo ago40¢500bought yes
2mo ago39¢1bought yes
2mo ago39¢6.85bought yes
2mo ago39¢13bought yes
2mo ago32¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.