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Victorian state election·closes in 14mo

Will One Nation win the 2026 Victorian state election?

YES means One Nation

24h volume
0
1,185 lifetime
Open interest
889
+792 over 90d
Spread
8¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
40 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 93¢
Recent buying12% YES · 88% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volJul 21Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask53877¢
  • ask20076¢
  • ask875¢
  • ask20017¢
  • ask1016¢
  • ask515¢
spread8¢mid 11¢
  • bid2007¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If One Nation wins the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For this market, “Liberals and Nationals” means the combined number of Legislative Assembly seats won by candidates endorsed by the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division) or the National Party of Australia – Victoria. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 4:21 PM UTC
closes
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVICTORIANSTATE-26NOV28-ONE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 79¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 40 trades, 12% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17d ago5¢112bought no
18d ago6¢35bought no
20d ago8¢85bought no
21d ago8¢200bought no
29d ago12¢25bought no
29d ago10¢190bought no
29d ago11¢10bought no
30d ago15¢200bought no
30d ago15¢30bought no
1mo ago23¢8.25bought yes
2mo ago21¢1bought no
2mo ago22¢5bought no
2mo ago26¢5bought yes
2mo ago27¢9.26bought yes
2mo ago28¢9bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.