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County vote percentages·closes in 14mo

Will James Talarico receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas?

YES means At least 60%

24h volume
107
755 lifetime
Open interest
655
+7 over 24h
Spread
3¢
5 × 33 at the touch
24h range
57¢ – 58¢
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
57%−38

A YES contract costs 53¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
43%

costs 50¢

YES bid / ask
50¢ / 53¢
NO bid / ask
47¢ / 50¢
24h low 57¢24h high 58¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢100¢volSep 20, 9:42 AMSep 21, 9:05 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask1486¢
  • ask22585¢
  • ask15284¢
  • ask10057¢
  • ask3353¢
spread3¢mid 52¢
  • bid550¢
  • bid1049¢
  • bid19648¢
  • bid27824¢
  • bid20021¢
  • bid702¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas is 60% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 19 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
60
ticker
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATETX26HIDALGOJTAL-60
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19h ago57¢95bought no
19h ago57¢5bought no
19h ago58¢3bought no
21h ago58¢4bought no
1d ago94¢3bought yes
1d ago95¢48bought yes
1d ago93¢1bought yes
2d ago39¢0.01bought yes
2d ago39¢200bought yes
2d ago39¢200bought yes
2d ago39¢196bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.