Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake?·closes in 16mo

Will Mitch McConnell vote for Kari Lake?

YES means Mitch McConnell

24h volume
0
8,018 lifetime
Open interest
1,951
−58 over 7d
Spread
31¢
95 × 5 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
/ 39¢
NO bid / ask
61¢ / 92¢
Recent buying47% YES · 53% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask73790¢
  • ask2689¢
  • ask19279¢
  • ask26570¢
  • ask32968¢
  • ask26667¢
  • ask20043¢
  • ask539¢
spread31¢mid 24¢
  • bid95
  • bid5
  • bid224
  • bid729
  • bid179
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Mitch McConnell votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by Mitch McConnell to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.

Settlement sources
opened
May 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVOTELAKE-28-MMCC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago15¢23bought yes
5d ago14¢8.48bought yes
6d ago12¢118bought yes
6d ago268bought no
6d ago10¢200bought no
6d ago13¢5bought no
6d ago20bought no
6d ago17¢127bought yes
6d ago17¢12bought yes
6d ago17¢139bought yes
6d ago11¢200bought yes
6d ago10¢5bought yes
6d ago10¢10bought yes
8d ago3.17bought no
13d ago13¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.