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Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake?·closes in 16mo

Will Ruben Gallego vote for Kari Lake?

YES means Ruben Gallego

24h volume
0
2,120 lifetime
Open interest
1,142
+0 over 7d
Spread
3¢
0 × 50 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 100¢
Recent buying5% YES · 95% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2328¢
  • ask19¢
  • ask28¢
  • ask17¢
  • ask236¢
  • ask55¢
  • ask5404¢
  • ask503¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Ruben Gallego votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by Ruben Gallego to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXVOTELAKE-28-RGAL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 11 trades, 5% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    25d ago1¢5bought no
    1mo ago3¢500bought no
    1mo ago4¢25bought yes
    1mo ago4¢10bought yes
    1mo ago2¢5bought yes
    2mo ago1¢50bought no
    2mo ago2¢2.97bought no
    2mo ago1¢100bought no
    2mo ago1¢46bought no
    2mo ago1¢100bought no
    2mo ago2¢2.03bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.