KXVOTELAKE·closes in 16mo

Will Susan Collins vote for Kari Lake?

YES means Susan Collins

24h volume
0
3,235 lifetime
Open interest
1,328
+344 over 30d
Spread
11¢
5 × 8 at the touch
24h range
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
/ 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 93¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Susan Collins votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by Susan Collins to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.

Settlement sources
opened
May 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVOTELAKE-28-SCOL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago1bought no
10d ago35¢10bought no
12d ago42¢2bought no
15d ago46¢200bought no
15d ago47¢10bought no
16d ago49¢94bought no
28d ago49¢40bought no
1mo ago55¢3.52bought yes
1mo ago55¢3bought yes
1mo ago49¢1bought no
2mo ago52¢1bought no
2mo ago56¢5bought no
2mo ago56¢1bought no
2mo ago55¢110bought no
2mo ago56¢95bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.