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Democratic VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Kamala Harris be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?

YES means Kamala Harris

24h volume
0
134.7k lifetime
Open interest
116.6k
+48.8k over 90d
Spread
0¢
20.0k × 354 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 28Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4.723¢
  • ask563¢
  • ask972¢
  • ask1,9112¢
  • ask1,1272¢
  • ask2,1112¢
  • ask8.082¢
  • ask3542¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid20.0k1¢
  • bid9,8501¢
  • bid5,5631¢
  • bid1,1001¢
  • bid1051¢
  • bid1581¢
  • bid511¢
  • bid22.2k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kamala Harris accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMD-28-KH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago1¢2bought no
6d ago2¢1.01bought yes
7d ago1¢5.23bought no
7d ago1¢90bought no
7d ago1¢0.27bought no
7d ago1¢3.68bought no
7d ago1¢0.99bought no
11d ago2¢52bought yes
11d ago2¢1bought yes
11d ago2¢52bought yes
11d ago2¢5.33bought yes
11d ago2¢49bought yes
11d ago2¢1.25bought no
11d ago2¢5.18bought no
11d ago1¢46bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.