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Republican VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Elise Stefanik be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Elise Stefanik

24h volume
0
43.4k lifetime
Open interest
34.6k
Spread
1¢
180 × 8 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
Recent buying55% YES · 45% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elise Stefanik accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMR-28-ES
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 70¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 55% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago2¢5bought no
4d ago2¢167bought no
4d ago2¢3.56bought no
4d ago2¢5.26bought no
4d ago2¢79bought no
7d ago2¢5.26bought no
7d ago2¢3.87bought no
7d ago2¢0.87bought no
8d ago3¢7.4bought yes
8d ago3¢2.6bought yes
8d ago3¢3.75bought yes
8d ago3¢5.81bought yes
8d ago3¢64bought yes
8d ago2¢0.43bought no
8d ago2¢0.52bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.