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Republican VP nom·closes in 26mo

Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Marco Rubio

24h volume
50
307.7k lifetime
Open interest
198.8k
Spread
1¢
2,365 × 942 at the touch
24h range
29¢ – 29¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%+2

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 72¢
24h low 29¢24h high 29¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask95039¢
  • ask5,00035¢
  • ask39434¢
  • ask2233¢
  • ask10.0k32¢
  • ask12031¢
  • ask5,38030¢
  • ask94229¢
spread1¢mid 29¢
  • bid2,36528¢
  • bid1,36627¢
  • bid6626¢
  • bid10.8k25¢
  • bid70824¢
  • bid3.0921¢
  • bid95920¢
  • bid85819¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marco Rubio accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVPRESNOMR-28-MR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 70¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago29¢33bought yes
16h ago29¢0.32bought yes
22h ago29¢16bought yes
1d ago27¢18bought no
1d ago27¢250bought no
2d ago27¢3bought no
3d ago27¢16bought no
3d ago29¢3bought yes
3d ago27¢16bought no
4d ago29¢66bought yes
4d ago29¢48bought yes
4d ago29¢110bought yes
4d ago28¢104bought no
4d ago28¢6bought no
4d ago28¢8.03bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.