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World Soccer Cup Host Country·closes in 89mo

Will China be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?

YES means China

24h volume
0
4,629 lifetime
Open interest
1,392
+0 over 7d
Spread
11¢
108 × 45 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 88¢
Recent buying13% YES · 87% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,81688¢
  • ask6175¢
  • ask42773¢
  • ask1,67772¢
  • ask86662¢
  • ask5461¢
  • ask90624¢
  • ask4523¢
spread11¢mid 18¢
  • bid10812¢
  • bid737¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If China is announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.

Once an official host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup is announced by any of the Source Agencies, the markets for any host country/countries will resolve to Yes, and all other markets will resolve to No. If multiple host countries are announced to host the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup, all markets pertaining to any of the named host countries will resolve to Yes. Example: If Australia and Cambodia are announced as hosts, the market titled "Australia or New Zealand" and "Cambodia" will resolve to Yes, while other markets will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 17 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2034 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2034 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWCHOST-2038-CHN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 13% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago15¢17bought no
11d ago17¢7.91bought no
12d ago17¢16bought no
12d ago15¢3.62bought no
15d ago23¢27bought yes
19d ago23¢0.58bought yes
21d ago16¢7.91bought no
27d ago16¢20bought no
30d ago15¢0.58bought no
1mo ago15¢34bought no
1mo ago15¢1.34bought no
1mo ago20¢1bought yes
1mo ago18¢1bought no
1mo ago18¢1bought no
1mo ago18¢11bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.