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Popular vote margin of victory·closes in 32mo

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?

YES means Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99%

24h volume
0
8,202 lifetime
Open interest
3,725
+2,641 over 90d
Spread
4¢
0 × 133 at the touch
24h range
–
47 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 100¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJul 9Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2520¢
  • ask2515¢
  • ask2510¢
  • ask5809¢
  • ask1008¢
  • ask1206¢
  • ask255¢
  • ask1334¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 1.00-1.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 20 · 6:00 PM UTC
    closes
    May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    -1.99
    cap
    -1
    ticker
    POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM100T199
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 47 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    2d ago2¢12bought no
    3d ago1¢13bought yes
    4d ago1¢50bought yes
    4d ago1¢30bought yes
    5d ago1¢45bought yes
    6d ago1¢45bought no
    6d ago1¢5bought no
    6d ago1¢50bought no
    6d ago2¢0.75bought no
    6d ago3¢0.75bought no
    6d ago2¢49bought no
    6d ago4¢25bought yes
    8d ago3¢28bought no
    8d ago3¢50bought no
    8d ago3¢16bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.