Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 3.0% to 3.99%?
YES means Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99%
- 24h volume
- 0
- 4,215 lifetime
- Open interest
- 1,985
- Spread
- 1¢
- 993 × 308 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 37 recent trades
A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 95¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask9182¢
- ask20452¢
- ask23951¢
- ask1,20750¢
- ask36549¢
- ask6008¢
- ask3107¢
- ask3086¢
- bid9935¢
- bid1604¢
- bid3513¢
- bid10.2k2¢
- bid1,5001¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 3.00-3.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.
- opened
- May 20 · 6:00 PM UTC
- closes
- May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- -3.99
- cap
- -3
- ticker
- POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM300T399
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).
- Democratic by 9.0% or more20¢
- Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%13¢
- Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%10¢
- Republican by 9.0% or more9¢
- Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%7¢
- Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%7¢
- Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99%5¢
- Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99%5¢
- Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99%4¢
- Republican by 1.0% to 1.99%4¢
- Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%3¢
- Republican by 6.0% to 6.99%3¢
- and 7 more
Recent trades
Over the last 37 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 5¢ | 7 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 5¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 5¢ | 43 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 5¢ | 19 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 5¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 5¢ | 45 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 5¢ | 55 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 5¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 5¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 5¢ | 0.75 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 5¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 8d ago | 5¢ | 28 | bought no |
| 8d ago | 5¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 8d ago | 5¢ | 16 | bought no |
| 8d ago | 5¢ | 71 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.