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Popular vote margin of victory·closes in 32mo

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?

YES means Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%

24h volume
0
5,537 lifetime
Open interest
3,141
Spread
1¢
324 × 424 at the touch
24h range
–
43 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask36145¢
  • ask6742¢
  • ask1,18840¢
  • ask1009¢
  • ask5008¢
  • ask3107¢
  • ask116¢
  • ask4244¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid3243¢
  • bid9,0002¢
  • bid1921¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 0.01-0.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 20 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
0.01
cap
0.99
ticker
POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-REP1T99
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 43 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago3¢12bought no
5d ago3¢43bought no
5d ago3¢19bought no
5d ago3¢50bought no
6d ago3¢45bought no
6d ago3¢55bought no
6d ago3¢5bought no
6d ago3¢50bought no
6d ago3¢0.75bought no
6d ago3¢50bought no
8d ago3¢28bought no
8d ago3¢50bought no
9d ago3¢16bought no
9d ago3¢71bought no
9d ago3¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.