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Alaska Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
16.6k
625.2k lifetime
Open interest
327.0k
Spread
1¢
252.2k × 23.2k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 30¢
NO bid / ask
70¢ / 71¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.0k38¢
  • ask2,06637¢
  • ask252.1k36¢
  • ask13.0k35¢
  • ask5,14034¢
  • ask1,03133¢
  • ask5.6832¢
  • ask23.2k30¢
spread1¢mid 30¢
  • bid252.2k29¢
  • bid1,98528¢
  • bid10.0k27¢
  • bid25.0k26¢
  • bid1,53724¢
  • bid16923¢
  • bid1,54520¢
  • bid2,07719¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEAK-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago30¢16bought yes
2h ago30¢500bought yes
4h ago30¢32bought yes
4h ago30¢1bought yes
6h ago30¢1bought yes
6h ago30¢25bought yes
6h ago30¢6.5bought yes
7h ago30¢16bought yes
7h ago30¢41bought yes
7h ago30¢32bought yes
8h ago30¢0.03bought yes
8h ago30¢2.69bought yes
8h ago30¢3.52bought yes
8h ago30¢64bought yes
8h ago29¢20bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.