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Arizona Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arizona?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
6.41
6,579 lifetime
Open interest
4,158
+1,257 over 90d
Spread
9¢
5.19 × 749 at the touch
24h range
19¢ – 29¢
Chance of YES
29%+3

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 30¢
NO bid / ask
70¢ / 79¢
24h low 19¢24h high 29¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢volJun 25Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55076¢
  • ask78472¢
  • ask59267¢
  • ask1,10266¢
  • ask4763¢
  • ask5260¢
  • ask153¢
  • ask74930¢
spread9¢mid 26¢
  • bid5.1921¢
  • bid115¢
  • bid5606¢
  • bid50.0k6¢
  • bid6,3096¢
  • bid2,4454¢
  • bid11.3k4¢
  • bid1,0003¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arizona for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEAZ-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.