SENATEIA·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?

YES means Josh Turek

24h volume: 2,634; 1.69M lifetime
Open interest: 928.6k; +2,544 over 24h
Spread: 1¢; 3,687 × 272.0k at the touch
24h range: 40¢ – 41¢

Chance of YES

41%

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

59%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask

40¢ / 41¢

NO bid / ask

59¢ / 60¢

24h low 40¢24h high 41¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask1,04548¢
ask2,03247¢
ask31.2k46¢
ask4,18045¢
ask3,52844¢
ask86743¢
ask3,20042¢
ask272.0k41¢

spread1¢mid 41¢

bid3,68740¢
bid13.8k39¢
bid1,85038¢
bid3,02137¢
bid1736¢
bid2,97735¢
bid250.0k34¢
bid10033¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

opened: Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: SENATEIA-26-D

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.