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Iowa Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?

YES means Josh Turek

24h volume
2,621
1.69M lifetime
Open interest
928.6k
+747.0k over 30d
Spread
1¢
3,687 × 272.0k at the touch
24h range
33¢ – 45¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
41%+1

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
59%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask
40¢ / 41¢
NO bid / ask
59¢ / 60¢
24h low 33¢24h high 45¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢50¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,04548¢
  • ask2,03247¢
  • ask31.2k46¢
  • ask4,18045¢
  • ask3,52844¢
  • ask86743¢
  • ask3,20042¢
  • ask272.0k41¢
spread1¢mid 41¢
  • bid3,68740¢
  • bid13.8k39¢
  • bid1,85038¢
  • bid3,02137¢
  • bid1736¢
  • bid2,97735¢
  • bid250.0k34¢
  • bid10033¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEIA-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago41¢2.34bought yes
2h ago40¢50bought no
2h ago40¢200bought no
3h ago41¢7.02bought yes
4h ago41¢25bought yes
4h ago41¢140bought yes
4h ago41¢12bought yes
4h ago40¢41bought no
4h ago40¢8.63bought no
5h ago41¢25bought yes
5h ago41¢2.34bought yes
5h ago41¢12bought yes
6h ago40¢1bought no
6h ago41¢12bought yes
7h ago41¢12bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.