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Idaho Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho?

YES means Jim Risch

24h volume
5.27
59.6k lifetime
Open interest
43.4k
Spread
1¢
349 × 0.99 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
94%+2

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
6%

costs 7¢

YES bid / ask
94¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
5¢ / 7¢
Recent buying6% YES · 94% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7,20698¢
  • ask20.8k97¢
  • ask33397¢
  • ask50097¢
  • ask45596¢
  • ask10.0k95¢
  • ask5195¢
  • ask0.9995¢
spread1¢mid 94¢
  • bid34994¢
  • bid75093¢
  • bid2593¢
  • bid50093¢
  • bid4193¢
  • bid10.0k92¢
  • bid50092¢
  • bid1,50091¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEID-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 6% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago94¢5.27bought yes
2d ago92¢0.99bought no
2d ago94¢0.02bought yes
2d ago94¢29bought yes
2d ago94¢1.51bought yes
2d ago92¢0.53bought no
2d ago92¢0.49bought no
2d ago92¢0.98bought no
2d ago94¢1.05bought yes
2d ago92¢1.07bought no
2d ago93¢1.07bought yes
2d ago93¢480bought yes
2d ago93¢18bought yes
2d ago93¢10bought yes
2d ago93¢8bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.