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Senate races·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kentucky?

YES means Charles Booker

24h volume
286
76.6k lifetime
Open interest
42.8k
+183 over 24h
Spread
1¢
92 × 73 at the touch
24h range
5¢ – 6¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%+1

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 95¢
24h low 5¢24h high 6¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 3:30 AMSep 21, 3:16 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5009¢
  • ask5038¢
  • ask687¢
  • ask4,0006¢
  • ask3,0606¢
  • ask8,8046¢
  • ask5106¢
  • ask736¢
spread1¢mid 6¢
  • bid925¢
  • bid1504¢
  • bid754¢
  • bid2983¢
  • bid1,8003¢
  • bid1502¢
  • bid2,6952¢
  • bid5002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Kentucky for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATELA-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago6¢25bought no
6h ago6¢30bought yes
7h ago6¢24bought yes
7h ago6¢0.38bought yes
7h ago6¢25bought yes
7h ago6¢1.08bought yes
7h ago6¢20bought yes
9h ago6¢35bought no
12h ago6¢3.02bought yes
16h ago6¢77bought yes
16h ago6¢1.56bought yes
16h ago6¢35bought yes
17h ago5¢6bought no
21h ago5¢2bought no
1d ago5¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.