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North Carolina Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
9,799 lifetime
Open interest
4,516
+0 over 30d
Spread
62¢
560 × 5 at the touch
24h range
28¢ – 66¢
39 recent trades
Chance of YES
32%

A YES contract costs 68¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
68%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 68¢
NO bid / ask
32¢ / 94¢
24h low 28¢24h high 66¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volAug 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1385¢
  • ask1,24982¢
  • ask4681¢
  • ask22377¢
  • ask31375¢
  • ask171¢
  • ask0.4269¢
  • ask568¢
spread62¢mid 37¢
  • bid5606¢
  • bid20.2k6¢
  • bid1,0004¢
  • bid483¢
  • bid43.2k3¢
  • bid924.0k1¢
  • bid4,0021¢
  • bid10.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATENC-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 39 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago32¢0.42bought no
3d ago32¢0.58bought no
22d ago42¢2.59bought yes
23d ago41¢0.58bought yes
24d ago65¢0.41bought no
24d ago65¢38bought no
24d ago66¢1bought no
24d ago64¢1bought yes
24d ago65¢2.59bought yes
24d ago46¢22bought yes
24d ago28¢200bought yes
1mo ago27¢0.88bought yes
1mo ago25¢500bought yes
1mo ago25¢100bought no
1mo ago25¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.