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South Carolina Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
5,317 lifetime
Open interest
1,851
Spread
9¢
210 × 209 at the touch
24h range
–
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
84%

A YES contract costs 85¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
16%

costs 24¢

YES bid / ask
76¢ / 85¢
NO bid / ask
15¢ / 24¢
Recent buying65% YES · 35% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask197¢
  • ask3,63096¢
  • ask5096¢
  • ask5596¢
  • ask3995¢
  • ask2794¢
  • ask1286¢
  • ask20985¢
spread9¢mid 81¢
  • bid21076¢
  • bid3344¢
  • bid10043¢
  • bid27542¢
  • bid37038¢
  • bid1,05237¢
  • bid53236¢
  • bid94931¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATESC-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 65% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago77¢200bought yes
8d ago77¢1bought yes
8d ago82¢1bought yes
8d ago84¢81bought yes
8d ago57¢1bought no
8d ago49¢51bought no
8d ago47¢155bought no
8d ago50¢44bought no
8d ago77¢200bought no
8d ago48¢14bought no
8d ago56¢1bought no
8d ago47¢198bought no
23d ago84¢59bought yes
1mo ago82¢3bought yes
1mo ago79¢15bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.