Starship launch to Mars·closes in 40mo

Manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030?

YES means Before 2030

24h volume: 2; 53.1k lifetime
Open interest: 10.4k; +0 over 24h
Spread: 2¢; 84 × 6.11 at the touch
24h range: 13¢ – 13¢

Chance of YES

13%+2

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

87%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask

11¢ / 13¢

NO bid / ask

87¢ / 89¢

24h low 13¢24h high 13¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

SpaceX

opened: Mar 22, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Dec 31, 2029 · 5:00 AM UTC
ticker: STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.