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Senate winner·closes in 4mo

Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

YES means Democratic Party

24h volume
11.6k
4.13M lifetime
Open interest
2.12M
+339.6k over 7d
Spread
1¢
18.5k × 83.5k at the touch
24h range
59¢ – 60¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
59%

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
41%

costs 41¢

YES bid / ask
59¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 41¢
24h low 59¢24h high 60¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
45¢50¢55¢60¢65¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2168¢
  • ask5,38567¢
  • ask30665¢
  • ask19664¢
  • ask38863¢
  • ask26.2k62¢
  • ask51.0k61¢
  • ask83.5k60¢
spread1¢mid 60¢
  • bid18.5k59¢
  • bid25.8k58¢
  • bid14.3k57¢
  • bid15.6k56¢
  • bid30.1k55¢
  • bid44.9k54¢
  • bid17.3k53¢
  • bid12.0k52¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLS-2026-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6m ago59¢62bought no
9m ago60¢1.61bought yes
13m ago59¢3bought no
19m ago60¢81bought yes
27m ago60¢8.1bought yes
37m ago60¢1.62bought yes
46m ago60¢1.61bought yes
47m ago60¢9.72bought yes
49m ago60¢0.19bought yes
53m ago60¢16bought yes
55m ago60¢65bought yes
60m ago60¢6.48bought yes
1h ago59¢59bought no
1h ago60¢405bought yes
1h ago59¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.